Posts Tagged ‘tdotsports’

On the surface the Toronto Blue Jays decision to move Roy Halladay when they did made perfect sense, aside from losing the best player to ever don the Jays uniform it was widely agreed upon that this was going to be a year of rebuilding and to get some tangible assets for Doc going forward was a no-brainer.  Like I mentioned in my piece about Jose Bautista at the trade deadline, the improvement (or arrival) of a team is not linear in the sense that you can almost never anticipate with any degree of certainty when a team has officially turned a corner, or arrived.

Playing in the AL East certainly makes that prediction or projection that much tougher and this piece isn’t meant to be a criticism for the Blue Jays trading Halladay but rather a look at a franchise that is clearly on the rise and what this season could have looked like if the Jays just hung on to their ace.  First, I think the Jays definitely made the right decision and I applaud the due diligence and determination of our rookie GM Alex Anthopoulos for leaving no stone unturned in his pursuit to get the best possible deal for our franchise pitcher, but today we will have a little hypothetical fun.

The Blue Jays by most respected baseball insiders got a solid package of talent when they acquired SP Kyle Drabek, C Travis D’Arnaud and Michael Taylor Brett Wallace CF Anthony Gose and I would have to agree with that consensus.  The lack of a dominating K-rate for Drabek is slightly disconcerting and I think his stock has dropped ever so slightly since the beginning of the season though the kid has pitched a no-hitter (who hasn’t this year?) and his minor league splits show a very solid ground-ball rate, maybe it is fair to say he is now rated to be a potential Matt Garza as opposed to Josh Beckett.

Again, the package we received was fair and D’Arnaud and Gose are both very intriguing young hitters with Gose having the potential to be a fairly high-impact defender in centre field, always a valuable commodity in today’s game.  This isn’t to dissect or discuss the Roy Halladay trade but to determine what type of season the Jays could have had with Halladay still on the team given that the three assets we received for him are not likely to make much (or any) impact to our team for this current season.

Roy Halladay continues to pitch like a man possessed as he is ranked #1 in terms of WAR accumulated this season on Fangraphs, are we (as Jays fans) surprised in the least that Roy is the best pitcher in the game?                                                

Halladay IPs ERA xFIP K/BB BB/9 WHIP WAR
2010 193 2.24 2.82 7.9 1.03 1.01 6.3
MLB Rank 1st 3rd 1st 2nd 2nd 5th 1st

 

Pretty much par for the course for our beloved Halladay but the category we will focus on for this piece will be WAR, where Halladay is currently ranked at the top of the league (in the year of the pitcher part deux) with a very impressive 6.3 mark currently.  WAR of course stands for ‘Wins above replacement’ so the number of wins that said player contributes over and above a replacement level player (think Vicente Padilla) it is a great way to see how much value he would truly add (well, close enough anyway) without giving ridiculous claims of 18-20 wins because Roy even on his off days helps us pitch complete games. 

Toronto’s record currently sits at 62-55 which is impressive considering the league and more specifically the division we play in, take away our 12-0 record vs. Baltimore and our record vs. AL East is a paltry 12-24.  I think Roy Halladay could have helped us some in that regard given his strong track record against even the toughest AL East foes.  Our starting rotation for most of the season has consisted of the impressive quartet of:

2010 Age IPs GS W-L ERA xFIP
Romero 25 160.0 24 10-7 3.43 3.64
Marcum 28 135.0 22 10-6 3.87 3.95
Morrow 25 127.1 22 9-6 4.45 3.68
Cecil 23 125 20 9-6 3.96 4.14

 

Hard to complain about that group so far this year and the worst ERA of the bunch Brandon Morrow actually has some of the best stuff and peripherals on the staff and definitely possesses a bright future for the team.  However, all season the weakness of the Blue Jays staff has of course been the fifth starter spot, where Jesse Litsch and Dana Eveland have provided little to no value, or better yet ‘replacement’ level pitching.  Ahh, maybe you see where this is heading.

2010 Age IPs GS W-L ERA xFIP
Litsch 25 46.2 9 1-5 5.79 5.46
Eveland 26 44.2 9 3-4 6.45 5.69
Totals – – – 90.4 18 4-9* 6.17 – – –

*Eveland inexplicably had 3 wins while posting a 6.45 ERA so the record should be even more ghastly for the fifth starter spot all things considered.

Roy Halladay has made 25 starts this season and has been worth 6.3 wins above replacement level so for the fun of this exercise we will kindly and optimistically round up to 7.0 (we’ll call it a few extra points for saving the bullpen extra mileage) and we will adjust the Jays record to 69-48, 4 games up on the Red Sox and only 2 games out of a playoff spot, saying Roy Halladay adding 7 wins to the bottom line is not ridiculous, it might even be the low end.

This is of course a rather elementary way of making an adjustment to the Jays overall record as there are a million different factors in play here including who did these 7 wins affect in terms of opponent which potentially could add additional losses to the top teams in our division but it does give you a solid grasp of the knowledge that the Blue Jays with Roy Halladay are most definitely a serious playoff contender.  You could also assume that the Jays would have been buyers, maybe even extremely active buyers at the deadline to shore up any weak spots and add depth for a stretch run further solidifying the roster.

This was all hypothetical (and fun) but it does beg the question: Were the Jays with Halladay a stronger team/contender than the Phillies with Halladay this season?  Perhaps the Jays should have just let Halladay play out his contract year at the risk of losing him for valuable compensatory draft picks at season’s end, though a part of me thinks he likely would have been excited and rejuvenated by the success and buzz the franchise has produced in 2010 thus far.  Another could argue on the other hand if the Phillies would have kept Cliff Lee and still added Roy Halladay that they might have had the greatest 1-2 combo in the history of baseball.

But this is all highly speculative.

Everybody loves a good old fashioned trade rumour and that is probably especially true for hockey fans.  With only four days to go before Maple Leafs defensemen Tomas Kaberle’s no-trade clause officially kicks back in I thought I would take one last look at some of the potential trade suitors and rumours that have been making the rounds.

These type of pieces haven’t really been my specialty as I am not an insider nor do I have any “sources” so everything I report today is basically for fun and a conversation piece, it is all second hand information, and likely third and fourth hand given the plethora of people who claim to have inside “sources”.  So although it feels like I am boarding the bandwagon and piling on a bit, let’s have some fun with it.

First, Tomas Kaberle is a very impressive offensive defenseman and has everything you would want in a puck moving blue liner.  Kaberle possesses silky smooth skating skills with the ability to stop and start on a whim and the uncanny (and un-teachable) ability to hold onto the puck while waiting out difficult pressure situations from opposing forwards to ensure a solid first pass out of the zone.  While not a huge defensive presence he is normally in the right position when it matters most and although his lack of strength and size are his biggest detriments he has worked around this weakness enough to carve out a nice little niche and impressive career in the NHL.

Kaberle burst onto the scene in the 1998/1999 scene after a very impressive training camp and he was such an unknown that Joe Bowen was pronouncing his name Kay-bur-lee.  Over the past decade Kaberle has been one of the best Leafs players consistently year in and year out and over 820 games with the Leafs he has amassed 80 goals, 402 assists good for 482 points.  Very impressive for a defenseman drafted in around that no longer exists in the NHL entry draft (8th round, 204 overall).

So the latest rumours have double digit teams potentially making a pitch to Brian Burke and company and a definite six teams with serious interest.  Among the six interested squads seemingly includes the Boston Bruins, San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, New Jersey Devils, Dallas Stars and the Tampa Bay Lightning.  There are likely a few wildcard teams out there who would like to add the best current blue liner available but might not have the chips or desire to meet the Leafs asking price.

Let’s look at the teams and potentially rumoured players coming back:

Boston – Marc Savard.  The rumour that will just not go away has the Leafs receiving Marc Savard and likely another piece for a player the Bruins have coveted and could seriously use in Kaberle.  I like Savard as a player but I am not enamoured with his salary situation (7 year deal at 4 million, currently being investigated by the NHL for cap circumvention) or injury history (head injuries are no joke).  I don’t see the Leafs trading Kaberle to get this player, but if the right deal or situation came about (aka salary dump) than I would have no problem adding Phil Kessel’s former running mate.

Savard – 33 years old, 5’10” 190 lbs put up 33 pts in 41 games last season.  Career PPG – 0.89.

San Jose – Ryane Clowe.  Mr. Clowe brings the intangibles that Burke craves as he has enormous size and strength and will go to the dirty places on the ice that a lot of Leafs forwards either won’t or can’t.  The addition of Clowe to the top line would definitely provide the size and space that Phil Kessel needs to get through a full rigorous NHL season in top notch form and with top PP minutes Clowe would be a potential 30+ goal scorer.  I guess the downside is he sort of mirrors the stats of former Leaf Alex Ponikarovski but with a tougher mindset and the truculence “Poni” lacked. 

The Sharks have been a rumoured Kaberle landing spot since the off-season began and he would likely put up 70+ points with the weapons the Sharks have on the power-play (Thornton, Heatley, Setoguchi etc).  The latest is Clowe and a 1st round pick for Kaberle.

Clowe – 28 years old, 6’2” 220 pounds put up 19 goals, 38 assists for 57 points and 131 PIMs.  Only 2 PPGs so room for improvement with Toronto.  Career PPG – 0.63.

Dallas – James Neal Brad Richards Mike Ribeiro.  Sorry Leafs fans but Mike Ribeiro would be the likely candidate to move in a potential Kaberle deal unless Dallas loses its mind.  Ribeiro brings a definite upgrade offensively over Tyler Bozak/Nazem Kadri for at least one or two seasons but I think both Leafs centres have higher ceilings than Ribeiro, and he isn’t exactly known as a physical specimen or force on the ice.  This is a long-shot at best but If he panned out and blossomed in Toronto it would at least tick off Montreal fans, so that alone gives it a slight boost.

Ribeiro – 30 years old, 6’0” 180 pounds put up 19 goals and 34 assists for 53 points.  Career PPG – 0.73.

Los Angeles – Wayne Simmonds.  The kid from Scarborough would be a local boy and a likely fan favourite for the way he plays the game, a definite gritty and in your face style with budding offensive skills.  Not sure if the Kings would want to part with him necessarily and not sure he provides the immediate offensive impact that the Leafs desire either however it would have to be considered a coup if Burke was able to land this kid.  He’s still maturing physically and his offensive game is only in its infancy, the future is very bright for Simmonds.

Simmonds – 22 years old, 6’2” 181 pounds put up 16 goals and 24 assists for 40 points and 116 PIMs.  Like Clowe, limited power-play time and overall minutes, would likely see huge increase in Toronto given the current state of our wingers.  Career PPG – 0.39.

Tampa Bay – Ryan Malone.  He isn’t young and he isn’t old so he is smack dab in his prime and would definitely fit into the Brian Burke breed of hockey player.  Given his salary situation and age I don’t see how they would accept Malone without an enticing sweetener of some form but I doubt the Lightning would want to part with its first round pick given where they have chosen the past few years, supposed improvements be damned.  Clowe > Malone, so this one is a long shot.

Malone – 31 years old, 6’4” 224 pounds put up 21 goals and 26 assists for 47 points and 68 PIMs.  Career PPG – 0.59.

New Jersey – ?  I honestly do not see any realistic trade opportunities between these clubs at all.  The Leafs do not want Dainius Zubrus or Jamie Langenbrunner and the Devils won’t part with Zach Parise (having 45 and 38 goal seasons in the past two might be reason to keep him?). 

So there you have it, I promise to do a proper and more professional analysis of the Maple Leafs haul if and when the Tomas Kaberle trade saga comes to an end.  Who knows what will happen in the next 48-96 hours and there may even be a wildcard team or two that could give the Leafs exactly what they desire.  One of my sources (ok, a buddy from my office) said he heard Buffalo was trying to put something together centered on bad-boy Zach Kassian and likely one of their overpaid and underachieving forwards.

My gut tells me San Jose will ultimately end up with Kaberle, with Clowe and a couple draft picks coming to Toronto unless Burkie gets creative (and lucky) and can score Ryane Clowe and a Devin Setoguchi for Tomas Kaberle and Mikael Grabovski? 

What are you hearing, what are your “sources” telling you and more importantly what do you hope (realistically) the Leafs get for Kaberle?